Capitalism is making way for the age of free
Jeremy Rifkin The Guardian, Monday 31 March 2014 18.
『資本經濟』已經讓路給 『免費時代』
2014年3月31日 Jeremy Rifkin The Guardian
The internet of things has facilitated an economic shift from markets to collaborative commons, with costs close to zero
所有東西的網路化已經造成了一種經濟上的改變 ~~ 從 『市場』變成是 『合作性協同公地』 ~~而且將 『成本代價』變成為 『零』!!!
作者: Jeremy Rifkin
The Guardian, Monday 31 March 2014 18.
中文翻譯： 林琚月20140406
http://blog.sina.com.cn/rebeccahjlin
http://vera2013rl.pixnet.net/blog
A 3-D printer producing a canal house in the Netherlands. A legion of prosumers is producing and sharing 3D printed products at near-zero marginal cost on the collaborative commons.
Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP
一個在荷蘭的3-D打印拷貝生產的 『運河房屋』。一團 『產消合一者』的軍團正在生產和分享3D打印拷貝產品以接近零的成本在 『合作協同公地』。
照片: Peter Dejong/AP
Karl Marx spent a lifetime trying to uncover what he suspected were the deep contradictions that drove the capitalist system forward but that would one day lead to its demise. Although his search revealed a number of important ancillary contradictions, his focus on the relationship between the means of production, surplus value and alienated labour kept him from unmasking an even deeper paradox at the heart of the system.
Karl Marx花了一輩子時間嘗試著去發現 ~~ 他所懷疑的 『這個深度矛盾』~~ 那是將 『資本主義經濟系統』往前推進的利器, 但有一天這同樣會導致其滅亡. 儘管他的研究顯示出了一些重要的配套矛盾，他專注在生產方法，剩餘價值和異化勞動資料之間的關係~~讓他無從揭露更深的矛盾在這系統的核心。
In a capitalist market, governed by the invisible hand of supply and demand, sellers are constantly searching for new technologies to increase productivity, allowing them to reduce the costs of producing their goods and services so they can sell them cheaper than their competitors, win over consumers and secure sufficient profit for their investors.
在資本主義市場，受供需關係的無形之手支配，賣家都在不斷尋找新的技術來提高生產力，使他們能夠降低生產自己的商品和服務的成本，使他們能夠比他們的競爭對手更便宜的賣掉它們，贏過消費者,並為他們的投資者獲取安全的足夠的利潤
Marx never asked what might happen if intense global competition some time in the future forced entrepreneurs to introduce ever more efficient technologies, accelerating productivity to the point where the marginal cost of production approached zero, making goods and services "priceless" and potentially free, putting an end to profit and rendering the market exchange economy obsolete. But that's now beginning to happen.
Marx從來沒有問過~~未來可能會發生什麼事?~~~如果激烈的全球競爭，在未來的一段時間內,迫使企業家不斷推出更高效的技術，加快生產力到生產的邊際成本接近零，使商品和服務“沒有價錢”和而且幾乎就是免費~~終將使得 『利潤』不再存在,而且讓 『市場交換』經濟過時。但這種情況現在開始發生。
Over the past decade millions of consumers have become prosumers, producing and sharing music, videos, news, and knowledge at near-zero marginal cost and nearly for free, shrinking revenues in the music, newspaper and book-publishing industries.
在過去十年來,數以百萬計的消費者都變成了 『產消合一者』們,生產而且分享音樂, 影片, 新聞和知識~~以接近 『零』的邊際成本,而且幾乎就是 『免費』,把音樂, 影片, 新聞和書籍出版產業利潤都縮減了.
Some of the US's leading economists are waking up to the paradox.Lawrence Summers, former US treasury secretary, and J Bradford DeLong, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, addressed this in August 2001, in a speech delivered before the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Summers and DeLong focused their presentation on the new communication technologies that were already reducing the marginal (per-unit) cost of producing and sending information goods to near zero.
一些美國頂尖的經濟學家都意識到了這矛盾. Lawrence薩默斯，美國前財政部長，和J Bradford DeLong是在美國加州大學伯克利分校的經濟學教授，在2001年8月針對這問題對在堪薩斯的聯邦儲備銀行城作了個演講~~~薩默斯和德隆集中他們的解說關於~~~新的通信技術目前已經減少了生產和發送信息商品的邊際（每單位）成本到接近零, 接近免費程度的狀況。
They began by acknowledging that "the most basic condition for economic efficiency: [is] that price equal marginal cost", and further conceded that "with information goods the social marginal cost of distribution is close to zero". They then went to the crux of the problem. "If information goods are to be distributed at their marginal cost of production – zero – they cannot be created and produced by entrepreneurial firms that use revenues obtained from sales to consumers to cover their [fixed set-up] costs … [companies] must be able to anticipate selling their products at a profit to someone."
他們首先開始承認“經濟效益最基本的條件：[是] 『價格』等於 『邊際成本』”，並進一步承認，“隨著信息貨物的配送的社會邊際成本是接近於零。”然後，他們談到了問題的癥結所在。“如果信息商品將以其 『生產邊際成本 - 零』來散發- -那它們就無法被商業公司創造和生產 ---因為商業公司是透過銷售給消費者所獲得的收入來支付他們的[固定設置]成本..[公司們]必須能夠預期銷售獲利自己的產品給別人。
Summers and DeLong opposed government subsidies to cover up-front costs, arguing that they destroy the entrepreneurial spirit. Instead they supported short-term monopoliesto ensure profits, declaring that this is "the reward needed to spur private enterprise to engage in such innovation". They realised the trap this put them in, recognising that "natural monopoly does not meet the most basic condition for economic efficiency: that price equal marginal cost" but nonetheless concluded that in the new economic era, this might be the only practical way to proceed.
薩默斯和德隆反對政府補貼來彌補前期成本，認為他們破壞了企業家精神。相反，他們支持 『短期的壟斷』，來保證利潤，宣稱~~ 『這是“刺激民營企業所需要的獎勵來做這樣的創新”。他們意識到了這一觀點也困住了他們自己，認識到“自然壟斷不符合最基本的經濟效益 條件：『該價格等於邊際成本』這概念”，但仍然認為，在新經濟時代，這可能是持續下去的唯一可行辦法。
The pair had come up against the catch-22 of capitalism that was already freeing a growing amount of economic activity from the market, and threw up their hands, favouring monopolies to artificially keep prices above marginal cost, thwarting the ultimate triumph of the invisible hand. This final victory, if allowed, would signal not only capitalism's greatest accomplishment but also its death knell.
這兩人基本上走到了『資本主義的兩難境界』中 ---將已經從市場經濟活動中不斷釋放出來的日益增多的(出逃經濟活動)，舉雙手投降，而決定贊成 『壟斷企業』來人為的將價格保持高於邊際成本，~~阻礙了這看不見的手的最終勝利。~~因為這 『最後的勝利』，如果被允許發生的話~~將標誌著不僅是資本主義的最偉大的成就，而且是 『它的喪鐘』。
While the notion of near-zero marginal cost raised a small flurry of attention 12 years ago, as its effects began to be felt in the music and entertainment industry and newspaper and publishing fields, the consensus was that it would likely be restricted to information goods, with limited effects on the rest of the economy. This is no longer the case.
雖然 『接近零邊際成本的概念』~~在12年前引起了一陣小的關注~~當其效果開始顯現在音樂和娛樂產業和報業和出版領域之時那時達成的共識是~~它可能會只是會發生在信息商品而已，對經濟的其餘部分的影響有限。但現在狀況已經不再是如此了。
Now the zero-marginal cost revolution is beginning to affect other commercial sectors. The precipitating agent is an emerging general-purpose technology platform – the internet of things. The convergence of the communications internet with the fledgling renewable energy internet and automated logistics internet in a smart, inter-operable internet-of-things system is giving rise to a third industrial revolution.
現在， 『零邊際成本的革命』已經開始影響到其他商業領域。而這凝結沉澱因素~~是一種新興的通用技術平台 – 物聯網。通信網絡的流通, 以及新興的, 可再生能源網路,和自動化物流網絡在互聯網中，在一個智能的，可互相操作的物聯網系統的融合~~正在引起第三次工業革命。
Siemens, IBM, Cisco and General Electric are among the firms erecting an internet-of-things infrastructure, connecting the world in a global neural network. There are now 11 billion sensors connecting devices to the internet of things.
西門子，IBM，思科和通用電氣是企業樹立互聯網的，事物的基礎設施的代表公司~~連接全世界的一個全球性的神經網絡之一。現有11000十億傳感器將設備連接到物聯網。
By 2030, 100 trillion sensors will be attached to natural resources, production lines, warehouses, transportation networks, the electricity grid and recycling flows, and be implanted in homes, offices, stores, and vehicles – continually sending big data to the communications, energy and logistics internets.
到2030年100萬億個傳感器將被安裝到自然資源，生產線，倉庫，運輸網絡，電網和重複循環流動中，而且會被裝置在家庭，辦公室，商店和車輛中 - 不斷地發送大數據的通信，能源與物流互連網訊息。
Anyone will be able to access the internet of things and use big data and analytics to develop predictive algorithms that can speed efficiency, dramatically increase productivity and lower the marginal cost of producing and distributing physical things, including energy, products and services, to near zero, just as we now do with information goods.
任何人都可以訪問的物聯網和使用大數據和分析去開發預測算法~~那是可以加快效率，極大地提高生產效率，降低生產和銷售物理的東西的邊際成本，包括能源，產品和服務的邊際成本, 使之接近零，就像我們現在的信息商品的做法。
Summers and DeLong glimpsed that as marginal costs approach zero, "the competitive paradigm cannot be fully appropriate" for organising commercial life, but admitted "we do not yet know what the right replacement paradigm will be". Now we know. A new economic paradigm – the collaborative commons – has leaped onto the world stage as a powerful challenger to the capitalist market.
薩默斯和德隆瞥見，由於邊際成本趨近於零“原來的競爭模式不再能完全適用此狀況”~~在組織商業生活的架構上~~但他承認：“我們還不知道什麼將是正確的替代模式”。但現在我們知道 ~~一種新的經濟模式 -
『合作協同公地』 -
已邁上世界舞台上作為一個強大的挑戰者~~
挑戰資本主義市場模式。
A growing legion of prosumers is producing and sharing information, not only knowledge, news and entertainment, but also renewable energy, 3D printed products and online college courses at near-zero marginal cost on the collaborative commons. They are even sharing cars, homes, clothes and tools, entirely bypassing the conventional capitalist market.
一個成長中的 『產消合一者』團體正在生產並且分享信息，不僅是知識，新聞和娛樂，也包括 『再生能源』， 『3D拷貝產品 』和網上大學課程都在接近零邊際成本的『合作協同公地』組織中分享。他們甚至共享汽車，家庭，衣服和工具，完全繞過傳統的資本主義市場。
An increasingly streamlined and savvy capitalist system will continue to operate at the edges of the new economy, finding sufficient vulnerabilities to exploit, primarily as an aggregator of network services and solutions, allowing it to flourish as a powerful niche player.
一種日益簡化流暢而且精明的資本主義制度將繼續在'新經濟的邊緣'進行操作，尋找足夠的漏洞來利用，主要是由於網絡服務和解決方案的聚合器，允許它發展為一個功能強大的利基球員。
But it will no longer reign. Hundreds of millions of people are already transferring bits and pieces of their lives from capitalist markets to the emerging global collaborative commons, operating on a ubiquitous internet-of-things platform. The great economic paradigm shift has begun.
但它將無法再統治主導經濟。數以億計的人已經轉移他們生活的片斷~~~從資本主義市場進入到新興的 『全球合作公地』~~~以一種無處不在的互聯網的平台在運作當中。這偉大的經濟模式的轉變已經開始了。
RL註: 2014年的重頭戲將從血月亮開始, 相信大家都很期待!
目前社會上的態勢是:
1)全球各地反政府現象越演越烈.
有各方人馬皆推出 『免費能源機器』, 包括了印度生產
『空氣車』, 美海軍承認可以使用海水做能源開船.
以及數位科學家的『免費能源機器』皆推出.
顯然沒人在暗殺他們了. 以後想瞞此事恐怕瞞不了了.
西方以及原來的東南亞都有許多
『拋棄傳統資本主義生活的人群』出現 ~~
一如那位不使用鈔票生活的德國女士~~
許多人不肯付房租房貸, 所以自建屋或共居.
許多人回歸自耕自食的田園生活, 把生活費降到最低.
網上交換系統越來越興盛.
飛碟被拍到的次數與清楚度已經越來越多, 越來越清楚!
我個人結論, 任何真正了解 『資本主義』制度的高級知識份子,
特別是對社會中政治與經濟運作方式有確實了解的人 ~~
大家都明白 『老社會架構』已經撐不住了.
請做好自己的數學功課!
問好! 祝福!
RL注: 歡迎大家轉載, 但請勿刪修任何文字, 特別是渠道名稱與譯者名稱. 尊重作者, 譯者與著作權!
請小心因果報應! 並請大家不要轉載刨竊的作品, 不要成為幫凶並分擔業障!
請大家協助保持靈學界的清淨! 修行路上大家加油!
無限祝福!
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安琚樂月(簡)
http://blog.sina.com.cn/rebeccahjlin
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https://zh-tw.facebook.com/people/Rebecca-Lin/100004446963328
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